British wine writer Jamie Goode has an
interesting and perceptive set of 2014 predictions on his blog this week
(wineanorak.com/wineblog):
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1. The
commoditization of wine will continue apace
Supermarkets do their job well. For most people,
wine is just wine, and they want a glass of something red, white, pink, or
fizzy at a good price. The improvement in quality of cheap wine, coupled with
the near monopoly on route to market that supermarkets enjoy (bringing with it
irresistible negotiating power) means that wine is becoming a commodity. In the
absence of strong brands, and with infinite substitution in this fragmented
category, there’s a huge downward pressure on price. It’s great for
consumers looking for drinkable inexpensive wine, but not good for producers
playing at this end of the market, who are struggling for profitability.
2. Wine will continue
to lose market share; craft beer is on the rise
2014 could be a big year for craft beer. At the
more commercial end of the market, wine is becoming expensive and quite boring;
you have to spend quite a bit now to get something really interesting. Beer
used to be a boring category, with most beers stuck in a limited flavour space:
the rise of craft beer has seen beer become more interesting, without it
becoming more expensive. You can now get some great flavour experiences from
beer for relatively little money. The same isn’t true of wine, and those
who make mid-priced boring wine are the ones who will suffer loss of market
share.
3. It’s going
to be a good year for the Balkans and the ancient wine countries
In 2013 we have seen some interesting wines coming
out of the Balkan/‘ancient wine’ countries. Georgia, Turkey,
Serbia, Greece, Israel, Hungary, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Slovenia and Romania are
all now making some really good wines, and are starting to sell these
successfully in export markets. They have good stories to tell, interesting
grape varieties and good terroirs. As they begin to get their viticulture,
winemaking and marketing up to speed, they’ll find buyers even in
competitive markets such as the
4. It’s going
to be a bad year for many wine writers
The barrier for entry into wine writing has been
lowered massively over recent years, with the dawn of the internet, blogging
and social media. It’s not a bad thing: personally, I have been a
beneficiary, having come to make a living out of wine communication as an
extension of a hobby website. But it means there are increasingly more people
writing about wine, most with relatively little reach. For existing wine
communicators who have failed to adapt to the digital age, it has been very bad
news indeed. And as PR companies, generic bodies and wineries struggle to
assign authority to the massed communicators (how do they decide who is worth
investing in, in terms of samples, press trips and invitations?), a lot of
people are going to lose out. Let’s just hope that the talented voices,
new and old, rise to the top, and not just the aggressive self-promoters.
5. Many will wish
they’d paid more attention to their established markets
A lot of generic bodies and wine producers have
been seduced by the lure of making easier money in
6. 2014 will be the
year of the niche
Wine is a niche interest. And in 2014 we’ll
have realised that, and we’ll be fine with that. Look: lots of people
drink wine, and lots of people enjoy wine, but for the majority it is just a
drink, and they don’t have a special interest in it. Those of us who
write about wine need to recognize that reading about wine is just too abstract
to be of interest for most people, no matter how accessible our writing is and
no matter how engaging we are. But there are enough people who have a special
interest in wine for it to be a niche worth bothering with. We, as
communicators, just have to remember who we are communicating with. The good
news: the internet has made connecting with those who are interested in what we
have to say much easier, and the likes of Kickstarter and the ease of
electronic publications has made it possible for authors to produce books which
are too niche for mainstream publishers to be bothered with.
7. The rise of
neo-prohibition will threaten the wine industry in many countries
Wine contains alcohol, and alcohol is the enemy in
the eyes of influential public health advisors [and Muslim governments – R.]. Many loud voices in the
medical profession are lobbying against alcohol, which is seen as an evil in
much the same way that tobacco has been targeted over recent decades in western
countries. In this debate, there is little acknowledgement of the social and
medical good achieved by modest wine consumption. Alcohol is bad and it is
increasingly being legislated against. This poses a direct threat to wine, and
expect to see this grow as a problem in 2014 as governments lose patience with
the ability of the alcohol industry to regulate itself. In the
8. We’ll
finally see some real innovation in the wine category
Go into any supermarket and browse the wine aisle.
The wall of wine is made up largely of products packaged the same way (in tall
glass bottles), which look the same, and to the average person, taste the same.
There is massive clustering in terms of look and flavour in the wine category,
and there’s little sign of real innovation aside from a few brave
attempts with label design. 2014 will be the year that finally sees some new
brands with the courage to be genuinely innovative. One of the reasons that
wine has become commoditized at the bottom end is because of the lack of strong
brands; and with commoditization comes an inevitable downward pressure on
prices.
Happy New Year to all!
Russ