[wine] Wine Industry Trends (fwd)

FYI/FYE. What's not to like? Expect these wine trends for the new decade Jon BonnéSunday, January 10, 2010 Water wise: Frog's Leap winemaker John Williams dry farms... There's not much doubt about what has defined wine culture over the past 10 years. Pinot Noir's debutante moment, the surge of sommeliers, the critter label. Riesling and pink Champagne and screwcaps. But the fact that you're quite likely reading this on a computer screen is a giveaway. The Internet reigns. What about the next 10 years? The Teens (Tens? Tweens?) will be an era without excuses. We're in a bold time for wine in America. More wine is being consumed than ever before - nearly 3 gallons per U.S. adult in 2008, according to data from the Beverage Information Group. There's something else: a lot of newly minted wine drinkers who grew up with wine-drinking parents. Wine marketing expert John Gillespie of Wine Opinions sees a parallel with the latter round of Boomers, who propelled wine forward in the 1970s: "Of the 70 million millennials (people born in the late 20th century) in the United States, there are still something like 20 million who are not yet 21." Dizzyingly, we have choices from around the world - and that will continue even amid a global wine glut. But en route to the era of Chinese Merlot, here are five themes that I think will define the new decade. 1. Retailers resurgent. There was a time when your local wine merchant was a top source of buying advice. That time is back. In part, this is the rise of wine boutiques that curate rather than cast a wide net - whether it's Ruby Wine or Biondivino in San Francisco, or even California Wine Merchants in New York - which makes for a shopping experience you can't get at a big box. Yes, scores will still sell wine and, yes, so will Costco and Walmart. But retailers have never been more knowledgeable or less snooty (makes a big difference); as in-store tastings and a culture of service become more important, wine shopping is becoming an experience to enjoy, not to rush through. That doesn't mean online shopping is going anywhere, but its current limitations (witness Amazon.com's abortive attempts at wine sales) underscore that buying wine isn't like buying a flat-screen. We want to see and touch. 2. Sustainability grows teeth. While the wine industry is virtually choking on eco-buzzwords right now, expect to see real regulation (self- and bureaucratic) that gives backbone to the claims. Next week the California Sustainable Winegrowing Alliance will unveil a third-party audit system. Expect it to become something like the Green Building Council's LEED certification for architecture: a consumer-friendly means of benchmarking. Beyond organics and biodynamics, expect water to become the next blazing issue (We began talking about it awhile ago: sfgate.com/ZJAN) In California and elsewhere, there won't be enough of it. Because vines need relatively little compared to, say, spinach, the next question is: How much less can we be using? And after a decade of synthetic corks (hopefully left behind in the Aughts) and screwcaps (here to stay, happily) the next packing revolution will be in the bottle itself. Not just by using plastic bottles or bag-in-boxes, but by using lighter and less glass. It's already happening. 3. Brands get serious. With a few exceptions, critter labels and their x-treme offspring are being shuffled off to history. Their replacements - attitude labels (Wily Jack, anyone?) - are a mixed bag. On the label, at least, classy is back; look no further than BevMo's breakout hit Challis Lane. Returning to that rising tide of millennials, the keyword is authenticity. They want it. Now more than ever, there are labels under $20 (the new magic price point) that deliver by looking serious but not dull. 4. The rise of pro-am reviewing. Forget blogs. With social media throwing its weight around (see my thoughts last year on Twitter: sfgate.com/ZJAO) whose reviews will really move markets? Journalism has been gnashing out the balance of professional and amateur realms for years. Wine criticism is headed for the same. Anyone can hand out an 88 or 92, but if you think your number flood will replace Robert Parker's, you need to suck back a few more RP94s. Yet the Web is increasingly providing ways to mesh these realms - notably with sites like Cellartracker, which I'll be circling back to soon. That's enormously powerful. 5. Less is more. Less alcohol (the numbers are already leveling off), less wood flavors, less tinkering. Some of this is a change in taste: more clear fruit than wood, brighter flavors that go with dinner, wines from around the world that fit this bill. But there's another lesson to be drawn from the recession: Simple winemaking is also less expensive. And all caveats aside about denting the brand - less expensive means more wine sold. Jon Bonnés The Chronicle's wine editor. Find him at jbonne(a)sfchronicle.com or twitter.com/jbonne. http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/01/10/FD471BDTLN.DTL This article appeared on page K - 1 of the San Francisco Chronicle -- ------------------------------ * Dr. James Ellingson, jellings(a)me.umn.edu * * University of Minnesota, mobile : 651/645-0753 * * Great Lakes Brewing News, 1569 Laurel Ave., St. Paul, MN 55104 *