Dear Russ, Alicia et al:


I, too, figured Mr. Staples omitted several costs.  However, after some research, I think his estimate is somewhat better than what we might think.  Hey, when you're retired and it's a snowy day in Colorado (powder day tomorrow), you have time to do this.


1.  In 2005, the University of California at Davis estimated total costs per acre to produce organic wine grapes in Napa County.  

Go to http://coststudies.ucdavis.edu/current.php and select Wine Grapes, Napa County, Item No. GR-NC-05-0.

Estimated costs per acre are:

$3,821 Vineyard costs (pruning, irrigation, mildew mitigation, cultivation, etc.)

$2,040 Cash overhead (office costs, insurance, property tax)

$11,060 Non-cash overhead.  Includes land at $140,000/acre(!), depreciated at $8414/year.  Also vineyard establishment         cost of $26,579, depreciated at $2209/year.

Total costs $16,921 per acre.

Assuming a harvest of 3 tons/acre, a yield of 140 gallons of juice per ton and 5 bottles wine per gallon, you get 2100 bottles per acre.

Divide $16,921 by 2100 and you get a little over $8/bottle for the cost of juice.  However, about 50% of that is in land depreciation, which would not apply to Lafite.  It has been in the Rothschild family since Baron James de Rothschild purchased Chateau Lafite in 1868.  So, let's call their cost of juice $5.00.  Granted, these are Napa costs, not Bordeaux.  I did come across a post from our old friend Russel Bevan, who said premium Napa Cab costs are well above that of a First Growth Bordeaux chateau.


2.  I perused Mark Squires' wine talk forum on erobertparker.com and other sources (which I can provide).  I also used my experience (admittedly dated) as an Industrial Engineer for Gillette Company, where we did a LOT of packaging.  As a result, I opine we can use the following costs of production per bottle (although they seem high to me):

$0.90 glass bottle

$0.20 capsule

$0.90 cork

$0.20 label

$0.05 shipping container

$3.00 barrel and storage costs

$0.20 bottling costs

Total $5.45 for packaging materials, packaging labor and aging.


3.  The total so far is under $11 per bottle.

Facility costs are more than were captured by UC Davis in #1.  That was only for growing grapes, not running an entire enterprise.  There are items like winemaking labor and equipment, marketing, distribution and all the new Bentleys for the barons' families (although I guess the Bentleys come out of profits, not expense).

But I would venture a guess that the total cost of everything would be under $50 per bottle.  The only way to tell is to hire a spy disguised as an accountant for Lafite.


4.  I remember paying $14 for a 1967 Chateau Haut-Brion, probably around 1971.  The Consumer Price Index has increased about 5.32 times since then.  This means that the $14 Haut-Brion cost $75 in today's dollars.  If the people with more dollars than sense were extremely discretionary, we might be able to buy a first growth for around that amount today.


5.  Of course, I realize that this exercise may be interesting, but futile.  It doesn't matter what it costs Lafite to produce a bottle - it's what foolish rich customers are willing to pay.  Producers will drop prices only if demand decreases.


I quit.

Ted


> Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2009 08:36:27 -0500
> Subject: Re: [wine] New market wine trouble
> From: sauternes76@gmail.com
> To: russellmccandless@frontiernet.net
> CC: tedcarm@hotmail.com; jellings@me.umn.edu; wine@thebarn.com
>
> Yeah I agree with Russel. That's $13 for packaging, not product, PPE,
> labor, etc ...someone needs to double check their accounting work!
> Cheers,
> Alicia
>
>
>
> 2009/4/1 Russell McCandless <russellmccandless@frontiernet.net>:
>> I could believe 10 Euros/bottle for Lafite’s VARIABLE cost of production:
>> just the corks, bottles, labels, barrels, pickers, tractor fuel.  But it’s
>> quite improbably low if it’s supposed to be Lafite’s ENTIRE annual
>> production cost including acquisition, maintenance, repair and depreciation
>> of facilities and equipment, periodic replacement of vines, managerial
>> supervision of production, taxes, reasonable return to the real estate and
>> to the equity, etc.  That would suggest that Lafite’s entire annual budget,
>> before marketing and distribution, is in the range of 2.5 million Euros.  I
>> think Mr. Staples has his decimal point in the wrong place.  I’m definitely
>> not here to defend first growth Bordeaux pricing, on which subject I
>> wholeheartedly agree with Ted’s observation that “there sure are a lot of
>> suckers out there.”  But if 10 Euros/bottle were all it cost to make wine at
>> Lafite’s quality level, practically everybody would do it.
>>
>>
>>
>> Cheers,
>>
>>
>>
>> Russ
>>
>>
>>
>> ________________________________
>>
>> From: wine-bounces@thebarn.com [mailto:wine-bounces@thebarn.com] On Behalf
>> Of Theodore Trampe
>> Sent: Wednesday, April 01, 2009 1:49 AM
>> To: Jim Ellingson; wine@thebarn.com
>> Subject: Re: [wine] New market wine trouble
>>
>>
>>
>> Did everyone read the quote from Simon Staples, in the 14th paragraph below,
>> where he estimated Chateau Lafite Rothschild's cost of production at $13 a
>> bottle?  The words got a bit garbled in the email, but the exact quote from
>> the NY Times article was, "He estimated it cost the chateau 10 Euro, or $13
>> to make a bottle of the wine."  Talk about marketing - there sure are a lot
>> of suckers out there!
>>
>> Ted Trampe
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>> March 31, 2009
>>> Wine Market Struggles to Adjust in New Era
>>> By DAVID JOLLY
>>> What is a wine worth?
>>>
>>> As elite critics and merchants from around the globe descend on the city
>>> of Bordeaux this week to sample the 2008 vintage of the world.s finest
>>> wines, that question will dog them.
>>>
>>> The ultimate connoisseurs have gathered every spring since the early 1970s
>>> for the tastings, known as the .campagne primeur,. or futures campaign. But
>>> never have they done it in the middle of so deep a recession, after so
>>> frothy a market. For that reason, this week.s tastings are likely to be an
>>> unusually sober affair.
>>>
>>> Just as the go-go years of Wall Street.s inflated salaries and Main
>>> Street.s cheap cash created a bubble in real estate, stocks and other
>>> assets, they produced a wine bubble too.
>>>
>>> The en primeur, or wine futures, system works to the advantage of the
>>> wine-producing châaux, providing them with cash for part of their product
>>> while it is still in the barrel; investors and consumers get the chance to
>>> buy wine at prices that have the potential to rise substantially.
>>>
>>> Prices for futures had long varied widely according to the quality of the
>>> vintage. But that seemed to change after an exceptional 2005 sent prices
>>> spiraling upward. The vintages of 2006 and 2007 were merely average, but
>>> prices did not fall, kept aloft by a surplus of nouveau riche big spenders.
>>>
>>> Now many of the speculators who drove prices to extraordinary levels have
>>> disappeared, or turned from buyers to sellers as they try to raise cash to
>>> cover their overleveraged bets. And the bankers and traders who thought
>>> nothing of blowing hundreds of dollars on a bottle are now worrying about
>>> losing their bonuses, if not their jobs.
>>>
>>> As a result, some overseas buyers have decided to skip the tastings this
>>> year, complaining that top châaux will not accept that in a market this
>>> weak, prices must fall. Some of the smaller merchants whose livelihoods
>>> depend on selling the wine, including some of the Bordeaux middlemen known
>>> as néciants, are said to be at risk of failing.
>>>
>>> Stephen J. Browett, director of Farr Vintners, an up-market British wine
>>> merchant, said he would not even be sending a team to Bordeaux this week
>>> because he did not expect to be able to sell the new wine at a profit,
>>> unless the wineries are prepared to accept substantial price cuts.
>>>
>>> .I wouldn.t call it a boycott, precisely,. he said, .but unless they give
>>> us an indication that they.re going to put the price down, there.s not much
>>> point in us sending our team down for a week..
>>>
>>> Simon Staples, director of fine wine sales at Berry Bros. & Rudd in
>>> Hampshire, England, said the gap between the pricing expectations held by
>>> wine merchants and the châaux over what is expected to be a decent, though
>>> not great, vintage was the widest he had seen in two decades.
>>>
>>> The top châaux are hoping to cut prices by 15 percent from the 2007 en
>>> primeur to show good faith, he added, .but cutting the price by 50 percent
>>> to 60 percent is the only way it.s going to work..
>>>
>>> The problem has been particularly acute for British wine merchants because
>>> the pound has fallen precipitously against the euro, and British buyers can
>>> account for up to a third of the market. Mr. Staples said the pound had
>>> fallen about 15 percent against the euro in the last 12 months, so .even a
>>> 15 percent price cut will only get us back to last year.s level,. he said.
>>>
>>> Prices for the best wines from around the world rose in tandem with the
>>> financial bubble, with both institutional fund managers and home-based
>>> Internet traders getting into the act. The London International Vintners
>>> Exchange.s Liv-ex 100 index, which tracks trading in 100 fine wines, mostly
>>> red Bordeaux, nearly tripled in dollar terms between February 2005 and
>>> August 2008. The index has lost about 43 percent of its value since then.
>>>
>>> Mr. Staples pointed to the example of Châau-Lafite Rothschild, a
>>> first-growth Bordeaux, which soared from £675, or $955, for a 12-bottle case
>>> in the 2002 futures to £4,000 a case for 2005 . which he called .the best
>>> vintage I.ve ever tasted.. But despite merely average years subsequently,
>>> the price only fell back to £3,500 in 2006 and £2,800 in 2007. He estimated
>>> it cost the châau .10, or $13, to make a bottle of the wine.
>>>
>>> Both Christie.s and Sotheby.s, the auction houses, say sales continue to
>>> be strong at their auctions, which typically feature excellent bottles in
>>> their primes.
>>>
>>> And people have not cut back on their overall wine consumption, according
>>> to Lulie Halstead, chief executive of the research and consulting firm Wine
>>> Intelligence. .But what we are seeing is that people are trading down a bit
>>> in price,. she said, spending less at restaurants while occasionally
>>> splurging more for the wine they serve at home.
>>>
>>> Data from Wine Australia, an industry marketing group, supports that
>>> analysis. Australian wine exports declined 5 percent in volume terms in the
>>> 12 months through the end of February, but the value of those exports fell
>>> 16 percent, suggesting cheaper wines are making up more of the mix.
>>>
>>> Predictions based on the weather during last year.s growing season suggest
>>> that the 2008 Bordeaux will rank as average-to-pretty-good. The châaux are
>>> expected to release their prices for the new vintage by the end of June,
>>> based in large part on the buzz from this week.s reviews. Mr. Staples said
>>> that if the top châaux decided the market would not support their price,
>>> they have sufficient cash to simply keep the 2008 vintage off the market,
>>> holding it for as long as 10 years, if necessary, when it would be ready to
>>> sell to retailers and restaurants. He said he was optimistic, though, that
>>> negotiations would succeed.
>>>
>>> There is concern, however, for the many smaller Bordeaux producers, who
>>> need the liquidity the futures sales bring. Wine merchants who depend on en
>>> primeur sales and the néciants . who act as middlemen between the châaux and
>>> the wider market . could be especially hard hit. The American wine critic,
>>> Robert Parker, noted as much in November, predicting on his blog that there
>>> would be .plenty of casualties..
>>>
>>> In an e-mailed message last week, he sounded similarly bearish. .In terms
>>> of wine prices, even the luxury end are soft, but have not fallen as much as
>>> real estate, art, and stock,. Mr. Parker said. .However, buying of top wines
>>> has slowed considerably, and what unfolds over the next six months will push
>>> prices lower, I suspect..
>>>
>>> David Sokolin, a fine wine dealer in Bridgehampton, New York, notes
>>> another potential pitfall. .If the producers cut prices sufficiently for the
>>> 2008 en primeur to move their product, they could undermine the prices of
>>> the 2007 vintage,. he said. That would hurt merchants and investors holding
>>> the back vintage, because their stocks of those wines would lose value. All
>>> of the first-growth, or highest ranked, producers . Châau Lafite Rothschild,
>>> Châau Margaux, Châau Latour, Châau Haut-Brion and Châau Mouton-Rothschild .
>>> declined interview requests, citing the press of business before the start
>>> of the tastings.
>>>
>>> But Jean-Guillaume Prats, director of Châau Cos d.Estournel, a Bordeaux
>>> second growth, acknowledged that prices have come down over the past six
>>> months. .That.s true of every fine wine around the world,. he said, .and
>>> it.s also true for many luxury items..
>>>
>>> Mr. Prats hinted that the producers would seek common ground with
>>> merchants. .Speculation isn.t in anyone.s mind at the moment, in any area,.
>>> he added. .It.s good that the market is going back to fundamentals..
>>>
>>> Francis Cruse, director of the Union des Maisons de Bordeaux, the
>>> néciants. union, blamed the madness spurred by the excellent 2005 vintage.
>>>
>>> .Prices need to return to the level where people who like to drink good
>>> wines can afford them,. he said.
>>>
>>> But Angéque de Lencquesaing, one of the founders of iDealwine, an online
>>> auction site in Paris, said it was hard for producers to accept lower
>>> prices. .In England and other countries people have a view of wine as a
>>> financial product that can go up or down in value,. she said. .In France,
>>> wine is sacred..
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> ------------------------------
>>> * Dr. James Ellingson, jellings@me.umn.edu *
>>> * University of Minnesota, mobile : 651/645-0753 *
>>> * Great Lakes Brewing News, 1569 Laurel Ave., St. Paul, MN 55104 *
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
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>>> http://www.thebarn.com/mailman/listinfo/wine
>>
>>
>>
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